tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Minneapolis: arrives on time 55%

  1. 13:51 PHX → 19:00 MSP
    DL 2274 · Delta · 3h 08m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 MSP → 23:27 DCA
    DL 2961 · Delta · 2h 26m · 71% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 35mPHX 13:51 to DCA 23:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.