tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 69%

  1. 13:51 PHX → 19:00 MSP
    DL 2274 · Delta · 3h 08m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 54m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:54 MSP → 22:37 RAP
    DL 3714 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 43m · 73% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 129 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 54m layover.
Arrives on time69%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip7h 46mPHX 13:51 to RAP 22:37, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.