tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Minneapolis: arrives on time 59%

  1. 13:51 PHX → 19:00 MSP
    DL 2274 · Delta · 3h 08m · 81% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:55 MSP → 23:25 IAD
    DL 4129 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 30m · 78% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 34mPHX 13:51 to IAD 23:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.