tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Atlanta: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:00 JFK → 08:24 ATL
    DL 2286 · Delta · 2h 24m · 90% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:16 ATL → 11:07 SMF
    DL 904 · Delta · 4h 51m · 88% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip8h 07mJFK 06:00 to SMF 11:07, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.