tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Nashville via Atlanta: arrives on time 55%

  1. 17:40 JFK → 20:34 ATL
    DL 2293 · Delta · 2h 54m · 78% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ATL → 21:44 BNA
    DL 3002 · Delta · 1h 14m · 76% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 04mJFK 17:40 to BNA 21:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.