tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 64%

  1. 12:37 TPA → 15:03 MSP
    DL 2301 · Delta · 3h 26m · 82% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 47m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 MSP → 21:00 SFO
    DL 2809 · Delta · 4h 10m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 182 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 47m layover.
Arrives on time64%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip11h 23mTPA 12:37 to SFO 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.