tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Washington via Detroit: arrives on time 49%

  1. 17:41 BNA → 20:29 DTW
    DL 2316 · Delta · 1h 48m · 76% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:24 DTW → 22:59 DCA
    DL 2073 · Delta · 1h 35m · 70% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 18mBNA 17:41 to DCA 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.