tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 57%

  1. 09:45 SEA → 17:05 DTW
    DL 2324 · Delta · 4h 20m · 90% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 05m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 140 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 05m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip9h 28mSEA 09:45 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.