tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 80%

  1. 05:15 TPA → 06:48 ATL
    DL 2330 · Delta · 1h 33m · 96% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:35 ATL → 08:54 SDF
    DL 1523 · Delta · 1h 19m · 94% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 3h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip3h 39mTPA 05:15 to SDF 08:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.