tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 59%

  1. 06:00 EWR → 08:24 ATL
    DL 2353 · Delta · 2h 24m · 85% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:10 ATL → 10:29 SDF
    DL 1374 · Delta · 1h 22m · 90% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip4h 32mEWR 06:00 to SDF 10:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.