tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Seattle: arrives on time 75%

  1. 09:20 PHX → 12:35 SEA
    DL 2374 · Delta · 3h 15m · 91% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 45m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:20 SEA → 00:25 IAD +1 day
    DL 541 · Delta · 5h 05m · 77% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 12h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 180 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 45m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip12h 05mPHX 09:20 to IAD 00:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.