tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → San Diego via New York: arrives on time 50%

  1. 16:43 ATL → 19:29 JFK
    DL 2378 · Delta · 2h 46m · 70% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:29 JFK → 23:39 SAN
    DL 685 · Delta · 6h 10m · 75% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip9h 56mATL 16:43 to SAN 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.