tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Minneapolis: arrives on time 80%

  1. 07:15 JFK → 09:26 MSP
    DL 2390 · Delta · 3h 11m · 87% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:23 MSP → 12:11 SMF
    DL 1701 · Delta · 3h 48m · 94% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection86%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 14% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (86%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip7h 56mJFK 07:15 to SMF 12:11, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.