tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Traverse City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 47%

  1. 11:10 LGA → 13:08 MSP
    DL 2409 · Delta · 2h 58m · 85% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 17m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:25 MSP → 17:55 TVC
    DL 4915 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 30m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 92 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 17m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 45mLGA 11:10 to TVC 17:55, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.