tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sarasota/Bradenton → Chicago via New York: arrives on time 50%

  1. 14:30 SRQ → 17:30 LGA
    DL 2412 · Delta · 2h 59m · 82% on time, 6.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 LGA → 22:36 ORD
    DL 2806 · Delta · 2h 49m · 59% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (6.8% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip9h 04mSRQ 14:30 to ORD 22:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.