tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Seattle via Minneapolis: arrives on time 66%

  1. 11:33 JFK → 13:50 MSP
    DL 2414 · Delta · 3h 17m · 87% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:15 MSP → 17:00 SEA
    DL 877 · Delta · 3h 45m · 75% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip8h 27mJFK 11:33 to SEA 17:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.