tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 37%

  1. 18:59 EWR → 21:46 ATL
    DL 2430 · Delta · 2h 47m · 60% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 ATL → 23:53 ORD
    DL 1199 · Delta · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip6h 00mEWR 18:59 to ORD 23:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.