tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Memphis via Atlanta: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:59 EWR → 21:46 ATL
    DL 2430 · Delta · 2h 47m · 60% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 14m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:00 ATL → 23:24 MEM
    DL 2501 · Delta · 1h 25m · 76% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 26mEWR 18:59 to MEM 23:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.