tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 49%

  1. 18:59 EWR → 21:46 ATL
    DL 2430 · Delta · 2h 47m · 60% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:02 ATL → 00:26 SDF +1 day
    DL 2624 · Delta · 1h 26m · 85% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 29mEWR 18:59 to SDF 00:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.