tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Sarasota/Bradenton via Atlanta: arrives on time 45%

  1. 18:59 EWR → 21:46 ATL
    DL 2430 · Delta · 2h 47m · 60% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:07 ATL → 00:49 SRQ +1 day
    DL 2997 · Delta · 1h 38m · 78% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 46mEWR 18:59 to SRQ 00:49, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.