tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Los Angeles via Atlanta: arrives on time 36%

  1. 18:59 EWR → 21:46 ATL
    DL 2430 · Delta · 2h 47m · 60% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 ATL → 00:31 LAX +1 day
    DL 575 · Delta · 4h 42m · 68% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 33mEWR 18:59 to LAX 00:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.