tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → San Francisco via Atlanta: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:59 EWR → 21:46 ATL
    DL 2430 · Delta · 2h 47m · 60% on time, 13.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:40 SFO +1 day
    DL 656 · Delta · 5h 00m · 70% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (13.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 41mEWR 18:59 to SFO 00:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.