tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Dulles via Detroit: arrives on time 60%

  1. 16:30 JFK → 18:55 DTW
    DL 2443 · Delta · 2h 24m · 83% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 43m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:38 DTW → 23:14 IAD
    DL 3988 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 118 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 43m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 44mJFK 16:30 to IAD 23:14, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.