tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 45%

  1. 17:32 BWI → 19:14 DTW
    DL 2480 · Delta · 1h 42m · 81% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip4h 41mBWI 17:32 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.