tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via Minneapolis: arrives on time 67%

  1. 06:00 RDU → 07:46 MSP
    DL 2538 · Delta · 2h 46m · 91% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 3h 14m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 MSP → 13:10 SFO
    DL 2074 · Delta · 4h 10m · 70% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 10h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 149 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 14m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip10h 10mRDU 06:00 to SFO 13:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.