tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Denver → Medford via Seattle: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:41 DEN → 20:44 SEA
    DL 2543 · Delta · 3h 03m · 57% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:35 SEA → 23:12 MFR
    DL 3954 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 90% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip5h 31mDEN 18:41 to MFR 23:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.