tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Des Moines via Minneapolis: arrives on time 78%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 45m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:40 MSP → 16:54 DSM
    DL 4913 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 14m · 80% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 180 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 45m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 04mPHX 06:50 to DSM 16:54, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.