tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Baltimore via Minneapolis: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 46m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:41 MSP → 18:15 BWI
    DL 2565 · Delta · 2h 33m · 63% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 121 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 46m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip8h 24mPHX 06:50 to BWI 18:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.