tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New York via Minneapolis: arrives on time 76%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:53 MSP → 17:00 JFK
    DL 2661 · Delta · 3h 07m · 84% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection94%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 6% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (94%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip7h 10mPHX 06:50 to JFK 17:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.