tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New Orleans via Minneapolis: arrives on time 75%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:45 MSP → 15:25 MSY
    DL 2695 · Delta · 2h 40m · 85% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip6h 35mPHX 06:50 to MSY 15:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.