tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Hebron via Minneapolis: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:50 MSP → 15:40 CVG
    DL 3113 · Delta · 1h 50m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip5h 50mPHX 06:50 to CVG 15:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.