tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Rapid City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 05m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:00 MSP → 15:48 RAP
    DL 3851 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 82% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 140 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 05m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 58mPHX 06:50 to RAP 15:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.