tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Minneapolis: arrives on time 73%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 39m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:34 MSP → 16:31 XNA
    DL 4012 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 57m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 114 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 39m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 41mPHX 06:50 to XNA 16:31, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.