tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Madison via Minneapolis: arrives on time 78%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:55 MSP → 14:05 MSN
    DL 4032 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 10m · 84% on time, 0.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.9% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip5h 15mPHX 06:50 to MSN 14:05, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.