tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Memphis via Minneapolis: arrives on time 76%

  1. 06:50 PHX → 11:55 MSP
    DL 2553 · Delta · 3h 05m · 95% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:45 MSP → 17:59 MEM
    DL 4063 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 14m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 185 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 50m layover.
Arrives on time76%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip9h 09mPHX 06:50 to MEM 17:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.