tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → St Louis via Minneapolis: arrives on time 42%

  1. 19:10 BWI → 20:59 MSP
    DL 2565 · Delta · 2h 46m · 71% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 MSP → 23:22 STL
    DL 1609 · Delta · 1h 33m · 78% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 13mBWI 19:10 to STL 23:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.