tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Baltimore → San Diego via Minneapolis: arrives on time 39%

  1. 19:10 BWI → 20:59 MSP
    DL 2565 · Delta · 2h 46m · 71% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:47 MSP → 23:30 SAN
    DL 2146 · Delta · 3h 46m · 78% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Baltimore). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 23mBWI 19:10 to SAN 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.