tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Madison via Detroit: arrives on time 62%

  1. 09:39 EWR → 11:33 DTW
    DL 2566 · Delta · 1h 54m · 84% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:26 DTW → 12:43 MSN
    DL 844 · Delta · 1h 17m · 80% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 04mEWR 09:39 to MSN 12:43, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.