tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 56%

  1. 13:00 EWR → 14:55 DTW
    DL 2577 · Delta · 1h 55m · 82% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 12m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:07 DTW → 18:25 MDW
    DL 4677 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 22m · 60% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Newark). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 147 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 12m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip6h 29mEWR 13:00 to MDW 18:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.