tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Louisville via Detroit: arrives on time 75%

  1. 14:00 TPA → 16:48 DTW
    DL 2587 · Delta · 2h 48m · 76% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 57m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DTW → 21:15 SDF
    DL 5832 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 30m · 79% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 132 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 57m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip7h 15mTPA 14:00 to SDF 21:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.