tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → San Diego via Minneapolis: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:57 PHL → 21:01 MSP
    DL 2594 · Delta · 3h 04m · 73% on time, 4.4% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:47 MSP → 23:30 SAN
    DL 2146 · Delta · 3h 46m · 78% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 28 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (4.4% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 36mPHL 18:57 to SAN 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.