tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 57%

  1. 16:40 MSN → 20:04 ATL
    DL 2599 · Delta · 2h 24m · 86% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ATL → 23:23 LGA
    DL 520 · Delta · 2h 23m · 72% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 43mMSN 16:40 to LGA 23:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.