tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Birmingham via New York: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:59 DTW → 19:50 LGA
    DL 2604 · Delta · 1h 51m · 61% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:05 LGA → 22:50 BHM
    DL 4938 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 45m · 66% on time, 10.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (10.4% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 51mDTW 17:59 to BHM 22:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.