tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → New York via Nashville: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:29 MSP → 17:35 BNA
    DL 2612 · Delta · 2h 06m · 79% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:27 BNA → 22:09 JFK
    DL 4909 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 2h 42m · 69% on time, 8.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 42 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (8.2% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 40mMSP 15:29 to JFK 22:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.