tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:27 RDU → 20:01 ATL
    DL 2621 · Delta · 1h 37m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:00 ATL → 23:23 LGA
    DL 520 · Delta · 2h 23m · 72% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip4h 56mRDU 18:27 to LGA 23:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.