tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Chicago via Atlanta: arrives on time 50%

  1. 19:04 JAX → 20:29 ATL
    DL 2627 · Delta · 1h 25m · 79% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 ATL → 22:17 MDW
    DL 1076 · Delta · 2h 02m · 77% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip4h 13mJAX 19:04 to MDW 22:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.