tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Las Vegas via Minneapolis: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:31 ATL → 18:09 MSP
    DL 2654 · Delta · 2h 38m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 MSP → 20:24 LAS
    DL 2246 · Delta · 3h 21m · 69% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 49mATL 16:31 to LAS 20:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.