tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Santa Ana via Minneapolis: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:35 IAH → 17:26 MSP
    DL 2678 · Delta · 2h 51m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:28 MSP → 20:24 SNA
    DL 2107 · Delta · 3h 56m · 68% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 49mIAH 14:35 to SNA 20:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.