tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Tampa via Minneapolis: arrives on time 36%

  1. 14:35 IAH → 17:26 MSP
    DL 2678 · Delta · 2h 51m · 68% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:15 MSP → 22:26 TPA
    DL 2385 · Delta · 3h 11m · 75% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 41 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 51mIAH 14:35 to TPA 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.