tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Tampa via Minneapolis: arrives on time 48%

  1. 15:38 PHL → 17:29 MSP
    DL 2679 · Delta · 2h 51m · 82% on time, 0.9% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:15 MSP → 22:26 TPA
    DL 2385 · Delta · 3h 11m · 75% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (0.9% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 48mPHL 15:38 to TPA 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.